Theories and Historical Predictions on the Inevitable Collapse of Israel: A Critical Analysis
**Introduction**
Since the declaration of the State of Israel on May 14, 1948, the Palestinian cause and the occupation of Arab lands have remained central to a geopolitical, religious, and cultural conflict. Throughout this struggle, numerous theories and predictions have emerged historically, pointing to the inevitable demise of Israel, based on political, demographic, and ideological factors. This article reviews the most prominent of these theories, analyzes their historical contexts, and cites their sources and proponents.
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### **1. Early Predictions (1948–1967): Arab Nationalist Discourse**
Following the 1948 war, Arab states and nationalist movements refused to recognize Israel, labeling it an "alien entity" destined to collapse under Arab resistance and unity.
- **Gamal Abdel Nasser**, Egypt’s president (1956–1970), declared in a 1956 speech: "We will throw the Jews into the sea," expressing confidence in an ultimate Arab victory.
- **The Khartoum Conference** (1967) after the Six-Day War adopted the "Three No's" resolution: "No peace, no recognition, no negotiation," believing time would weaken Israel.
- **The Ba'ath Party** in Syria and Iraq promoted the slogan "Liberating Palestine from the river to the sea" as part of its nationalist ideology (References: Nasser’s speeches, Khartoum Conference documents).
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### **2. The Cold War and Ideological Conflict (1970–1990)**
During the Cold War, the Soviet Union backed some Arab states, while the global left viewed Israel as a "colonial state" destined to fall with capitalism’s collapse.
- **Marxist theorist Ilya Khrinin** wrote in his book *The Arab-Israeli Conflict* (1975) that Israel would not withstand liberation movements supported by the socialist bloc.
- **The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO)**, led by Yasser Arafat, adopted the "Phased Plan" (1974), which assumed armed resistance would gradually undermine Israel (Reference: PLO’s Ten-Point Program, 1974).
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### **3. Academic and Demographic Theories (1990–2000)**
After the Oslo Accords (1993), debates shifted to Israel’s internal challenges, particularly the demographic threat.
- **Palestinian academic Edward Said** argued in his book *The Question of Palestine* (1992) that Israel, as a "settler-colonial state," was doomed to share the fate of states like Rhodesia.
- **Demographer Sergio Della Pergola** warned in his studies (2003) that Palestinian population growth in the West Bank and Gaza might force Israel to choose between being a "democratic or Jewish state."
- **Israeli General Oren Soffer** predicted Israel would "cease to exist as a Jewish state by 2020" due to demographic shifts (Reference: *Israel 2020* study, 2004).
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### **4. The 21st Century: From Sustainability Challenges to the BDS Movement**
In recent decades, analyses have focused on international isolation and moral pressures.
- **Historian Ilan Pappe** argued in *The Ethnic Cleansing of Palestine* (2006) that Israel could not maintain legitimacy as global awareness of Palestinian rights grew.
- **The Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) Movement**, launched in 2005, drew parallels with South African apartheid, predicting economic pressure would force Israeli change.
- **Academics John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt** noted in *The Israel Lobby* (2007) that unconditional U.S. support might become a liability amid rising international criticism (Reference: *The Israel Lobby* article, 2006).
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### **Reality and Complexities: Why Have Predictions Not Materialized?**
Despite these theories, Israel has endured due to military superiority, Western backing, and Arab divisions. Peace treaties with Egypt (1979), Jordan (1994), and the Abraham Accords (2020) with Gulf states reduced its isolation. However, debates persist over how settlement expansion and occupation impact its future as a democratic or Jewish state.
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**Conclusion**
Theories predicting Israel’s collapse reflect evolving global reactions to the conflict. While some argue internal and external challenges threaten its sustainability, Israel’s resilience in facing crises remains evident. Yet, the question of its nature and fate remains tied to a just resolution of the Palestinian issue—one that remains unrealized.
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**Key References:**
1. Gamal Abdel Nasser’s Speech, 1956 (Arab League Archives).
2. Khartoum Conference Documents, 1967.
3. Edward Said, *The Question of Palestine*, 1992.
4. Sergio Della Pergola, *The Israeli Demographic Challenge*, 2003.
5. John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt, *The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy*, 2006.
6. Ilan Pappe, *The Ethnic Cleansing of Palestine*, 2006.
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